US Presidential Election 2016 on RWL

[The Lady Shael]

With the UMD discussion going on, I'm just curious to see what the tallies are.

[Shadow]

Poll aggregators overwhelmingly predict Clinton at this point, and they have a pretty good track record. I wonder if the RWL consensus is in line with reality. I'm guessing not.

[Gen. Volkov]

Is this who I actually will probably end up voting for, or who I would like to vote for if it actually looks they have a shot at winning?

[Neobaron]

the former is whats going to happen anyways, since we're being realistic here right :V

[Gen. Volkov]

Johnson is hovering right around 10%, last time I checked, he needs 15% to get into the debates. If he can get into the debates, who knows what might happen. That said, the most likely scenario is that none of the third party candidates makes a serious run at it. Which means Clinton for me.

[Firetooth]

Poll aggregators overwhelmingly predict Clinton at this point, and they have a pretty good track record. I wonder if the RWL consensus is in line with reality. I'm guessing not.

Well here in Britain, the poll of polls got both Brexit and the 2015 General Election. Both were only out by a few percentage points, though, and I think the lead Clinton has over Trump holds, then you'd need a bigger margin of error than would be possible for Trump to win.

P.S. Would vote Clinton. People only hate her because of the sexist, right-wing media narrative. She's not great but literally supports basically all the same policies that Obama does - yet he has 52% approval. Why is she known as Kilary, but the man responsible for the mass expansion of drone bombings (with pretty significant collateral) is so popular?

[The Lady Shael]

Speaking of Brexit, did you guys know Raine was on the staff for the Leave.EU campaign?

[Shadow]

Interesting.

As for poll aggregators, it's not too surprising they got the UK votes too. As XKCD put it...

[Neobaron]

Tbh I haven't seen much sexism at all. Lots of reaching by extremists on the internet (new wave feminists, sjws, huffpo, etc) but nothing from any legitimate sources. Hell even breibart and drudge are focusing on twisting facts rather than pointing out anatomy.

Also she's known as killary because of her hawking and the curiously large number of political enemies that seem to die conveniently. Tally is up to like 47 now or something? That's tinfoil talk though. Need a Snowden for the physical machinations of the elites in addition to the digital before anyone will take it seriously.

[Gen. Volkov]

Speaking of Brexit, did you guys know Raine was on the staff for the Leave.EU campaign?

That is interesting Shael, I did not know that. I'm curious as to how you know that.

[Firetooth]

Tbh I haven't seen much sexism at all. Lots of reaching by extremists on the internet (new wave feminists, sjws, huffpo, etc) but nothing from any legitimate sources. Hell even breibart and drudge are focusing on twisting facts rather than pointing out anatomy.

Also she's known as killary because of her hawking and the curiously large number of political enemies that seem to die conveniently. Tally is up to like 47 now or something? That's tinfoil talk though. Need a Snowden for the physical machinations of the elites in addition to the digital before anyone will take it seriously.

Sexism is not always expressed overtly - that's not how it works. One of the main mechanisms through which sexism works is by internalising the values espoused by the media and a society which is still male-dominated, and basically everybody has at least some of these sexist values internalised, whether the like to admit it or not. Those Bernie bros that constantly slag Hilary off as a [dog] might not think that they're subconsciously influenced by media portrayals of ambitious women such as Hilary as fundamentally unpleasant, but they are.

As for the Kilary thing: again, why isn't Obama subject to the same kind of scrutiny? Obomba? Hundreds dead from drones collateral? Like, 160+ dead kids from drone collateral in Pakistan? Yet 52% approval, whilst Hilary Clinton is blasted as a murderer over Benghazi and a bunch of conspiracist nonsense. As usual, double standards apply to women.

Look at the facts regarding Clinton. Yes, she's had a few scandals, but so have most politicians who have been in the public eye for as long as her. Yeah, she's changed some positions, but which politician hasn't over a career spanning decades? Would we rather she still opposed s/s marriage and refused to move with the times? After all, we all enjoy blasting the GOP for being out of touch. Yet when a politician does change their stance on issues - either through personal change or through a desire to better represent the people (or a combination thereof) - we cynically condemn it as awful. It's just as possible imo, that she supported s/s marriage before she said she did, and was giving the standard US politician's response - as many far more popular Democrats did - of marriage being between a man and a woman.

Oh, and again on the double standards:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S5L2LMJcRIg

edit: video won't work atm, so can't verify it's not hacked together. But Obama's changing stance on s/s is documented here. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/may/11/barack-obama/president-barack-obamas-shift-gay-marriage/

So yeah, she's basically a continuation of Obama, with most of the foibles and controversies and changes of opinion you'd expect from any heavyweight politician who's been as long in the public eye as she has. Yet she is uniquely unpopular when compared to her male counterparts.

Also, not sure who "Raine," but Leave.EU was not the official Leave campaign. It was the unofficial Leave campaign led by UKIP and led by Nigel Farage, a man chummy with Russia, plenty of the GOP, and far-right politicians across Europe. Oh, and there's this:



So yeah, I'm afraid being a staffer for Leave.EU is nothing to be proud of.

[Genevieve]

^ I like femitooth.

[The Lady Shael]

Also, not sure who "Raine," but Leave.EU was not the official Leave campaign. It was the unofficial Leave campaign led by UKIP and led by Nigel Farage, a man chummy with Russia, plenty of the GOP, and far-right politicians across Europe. Oh, and there's this:

So yeah, I'm afraid being a staffer for Leave.EU is nothing to be proud of.

Just thought I would mention it since it's not often you see a RWLer in the national/international spotlight. He was the press officer so he did a few TV and radio interviews. His forum name is Vengerak, but we call him Raine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sknRa_6GqCM

Speaking of Brexit, did you guys know Raine was on the staff for the Leave.EU campaign?

That is interesting Shael, I did not know that. I'm curious as to how you know that.

I'm friends with him on Facebook. :p So, it was hard to miss all the pro-Brexit posts.

[Blobfish]

Add a Blobfish option.

[Gen. Volkov]

Sexism is not always expressed overtly - that's not how it works. One of the main mechanisms through which sexism works is by internalising the values espoused by the media and a society which is still male-dominated, and basically everybody has at least some of these sexist values internalised, whether the like to admit it or not. Those Bernie bros that constantly slag Hilary off as a [dog] might not think that they're subconsciously influenced by media portrayals of ambitious women such as Hilary as fundamentally unpleasant, but they are.

I'm going to call shenanigans here Firefight. I've read a lot of the same pieces you have about how assertive women are bitches, while assertive men are respected. I never really bought any of them though. There are certainly examples given to support that narrative, but just like any well-written persuasion piece, they gloss over the large number of counter-examples that ruin the whole thing. There are any number of movies which depict the ambitious, career-driven man as a total jerk. If he's the protagonist, he comes to realize that family is most important, etc. you know the story. Think "Click" or "Liar Liar", or pretty much any 90's comedy. It's a really old storyline though, at least as old as Charles Dickens "A Christmas Carol", if not older. Conversely, if the ambitious, career driven guy is not the protagonist, he is inevitably the main villain who the good, kind, family-oriented hero must defeat or gets his comeuppance in some way. If you can find a statistical analysis with a decent sample size showing that assertive, career-oriented women are portrayed negatively significantly more often than men, I might believe you, but from where I'm sitting, the same story-lines that Dickens laid out in "A Christmas Carol" seem to be applied pretty equally to men and women.

I'm not saying our society is entirely free of gender bias, little boys are encouraged to do certain things, little girls encouraged to do others, but this whole "unconscious sexism" thing just rubs me the wrong way. It smacks heavily of thought policing. One can recognize sexist thoughts, I don't buy for a second that its so ingrained in our society that we can't even recognize it. Furthermore, in reality, its quite easy to distinguish between the ambitious, assertive people, and the complete jerks. At 32, I've worked quite a few jobs, and I've had bosses in both categories, they were both male and female. It never took me long to figure out who the jerks were. Being a jerk knows no gender.

There are many legitimate counter-arguments to the people who deride Hillary Clinton, but the accusation that they are all secretly, unconsciously sexist isn't one of them, as far as I can tell. If you have data that would change my mind, I am of course open to it.

I'm friends with him on Facebook. :p So, it was hard to miss all the pro-Brexit posts.

Ah, LOL, OK then. You should get him to come back to RWL.

[edit] LOL @ word filter turned Dickens into [lance].