Hidden Fox's Market Report

[Sevah]

I fully understand supply and demand but add the theory of implied scarcity and abundance to the market war.

[Shadow]

Units	Average Price	Total Units	Buyout Cost
Rats	$878.71	199,080,263	$174,932,923,977
Weasels	$853.46	49,737,810	$42,449,292,980
Stoats	$1,904.10	18,172,406	$34,602,106,620
Skiffs	$2,532.40	60,654,853	$153,602,238,060
Food	$15.18	3,422,870,548	$51,943,058,220
Total			$457,529,619,857

[Sevah]

Units	Average Price	Total Units	Buyout Cost
Rats	$878.71	199,080,263	$174,932,923,977
Weasels	$853.46	49,737,810	$42,449,292,980
Stoats	$1,904.10	18,172,406	$34,602,106,620
Skiffs	$2,532.40	60,654,853	$153,602,238,060
Food	$15.18	3,422,870,548	$51,943,058,220
Total			$457,529,619,857

I can make that much in 2 runs tops. Maybe just 1 run.

But that includes my stuff right? Should have plenty of coin spare

[Peace Alliance]

The market has shrunk by half!

One of the interesting things about keeping a closer eye on the market is that I'm discovering that it doesn't behave the way I think it would. First of all, you'd think there would be linear growth, but when you get a land lock that throws a wrench into market growth!

Breakdown

Rats: Don't be fooled by net growth of the rats, Snowy Fir (#6) is flooding the market with overpriced rats. This was probably because of the distinct shortage of rats while the land was locked up.

Weasels: Still the cheapest most plentiful thing on the market! That said, there are 40% fewer then 5 days ago. This is the time for an indy to shine!

Stoats: Only 20m stoats on the market?! Wow! The biggest # of stoats are being posted by The Equinox of 2012 (#4). Here's a tip, you can do the math on how many stoats he has on the market to figure out the maximum # of stoats he could have had at one time.

Skiffs: Skiff market has gone crazy. The prices are up, and the supply is down.

Food: Going strong since last time. Be sure to thank your local passive player for keeping you fed.

[Shadow]

When you calculate average price, are you just taking a linear average of prices posted, or the weighted average, ie, total market value of troop divided by troop number (you should be using the second one).

[Peace Alliance]

Henceforth they will be the weighted ave.

Also, just to give folks an idea of how quickly these things change, I just ran the numbers again and there was a 9% total market growth in the last 2 hours!

[Wolf Snare]

I'll swallow the market up next run. Keep your defenses raised passives! ;)

[Shadow]

Some stuff it might be interesting to track for the market to see how well they are correlated:

average price as a function of available number of troops
rate of market growth as a function of the size of the market

[Sharptooh]

Some stuff it might be interesting to track for the market to see how well they are correlated:

average price as a function of available number of troops
rate of market growth as a function of the size of the market

Wasn't there a topic in dev a while back about keeping stats / graphs of various things and putting them on a dedicated "statistics" page?

Would be pretty interesting if market statistics were kept somewhere ingame, especially considering how important the market seems to be now.

[Shadow]

Market prices have hit rock bottom. Good time for players to switch over to cashing for a run to clean it up. Indies might have a harder time of things.

I love seeing the market actually respond to supply and demand forces, it means that it is actually working like a market and not a storehouse. Mission success. Though a silly amount of silly people are still dropping goods on the market for the suggested price without actually thinking about it - I think I may remove price suggestions so that people actually put some thought into their selling.

[Peace Alliance]

Suggested price could be the weighted average, rather then current lowest. I've seen people putting like 20 rats up for 315 just to lower the price.

[Peace Alliance]

Hidden Fox Market Report

	Total Posted	Since Last	Cost to buy out	Net Growth	Average Prices
Rats	420,722,347	-37,787,464	$178,821,849,475	-39%	$425
Stoats	179,802,745	70,910,183	$284,065,835,267	48%	$1,580
Weasels	259,282,525	130,444,587	$197,522,279,724	88%	$762
Skiffs	70,915,181	20,110,104	$167,250,942,623	31%	$2,358
Food	1,342,050,082	-128,488,045	$23,956,901,476	-1%	$18
		Total Market Value	$851,617,808,565	14%

Don't let the total Net Growth fool you. While there is only 14% more net value in the market, it has grown a TON in terms of amounts being posts - they're just being posted for way way less.

The market is currently a buyers market, prices are rock bottom because there is so much being posted.

In the grand scheme of things this is because rather then making money people are selling troops on the market. In order to fund your run that stuff needs to sell, so obviously it must be priced competitively.

Essentially that means we have a constant chunk of money that is being used and reused in the market. Until people start adding to that chunk by making money through other means, the prices will continue being this low.

I can't stress this enough, the market is probably the most important and exciting aspect of the new game.

Noteworthy capitalists:

Day Old Hate (#7) has the biggest chunk in the rat market, obviously indicating a once great army... But many other people have smaller chunks. In the case of indies, folks like Celestial Ascension-QuasarDragon (#24) show signs of using a hyper-posting indy strat, whereby troops are posted many times through out the run in order to keep the upkeep prices low. This is a profitable strat, but I don't believe it gives him/her a very good defense at the end of the run. These are the kind of things you can look for by interpreting the market, rank, networth, and race of your fellow warlords. So much info without ever needing an espy.

Not very much food on the market! Sure is awfully expensive too. A food run would be majorly profitable - but I'm kind of enjoying the scarcity at the moment.

The weasles have grown... a LOT... Not sure why so many people make 'em...


Aaaaand once gain skiffs are super duper cheap! Also notice #24 is using his/her hyper-posting strat with troops that don't eat a lot of food, that means his runs are super cheap!

Enjoy!

[The Obliterator]

I put weasels up cause they sell really well and also do not use up much cash during the run.

You would be surprised at how many people are easy to break with weasels.

At current prices you can break the top player for about 20 bil cash buying weasels.

[Shadow]

Interesting: the land lock is broken and the market has shrunk significantly and stayed small since. Seems that land locks actually increase the amount of troops on the market (note that this is even accounting for the fact that lockers will naturally have more troops around to market). People trying to control the market through locking land take note.

[Durza]

If people cannot afford the upkeep of their troops, then it makes since that the market would flood with troops.  Land is the keystone of the game.